The US may impose tariffs on imported copper, a smelter under Glencore has suspended operations, and New York copper hit a record high [SMM Express].

SMM March 26 News: It is reported that US President Trump may impose tariffs on imported copper within weeks, intensifying market concerns over US copper tariffs. Coupled with Glencore's suspension of operations at the Altonorte smelter in Chile, market sentiment regarding supply disruptions has heightened. After hitting a record high on March 25, COMEX copper once again reached a new historical peak on March 26. As of around 11:06 on March 26, COMEX copper rose 1.19% to $5.2725/lb, hitting a new high of $5.3740/lb during the session. LME copper fell 0.67% to $10,044/mt, with the price spread between COMEX and LME copper reaching as high as $1,580. SHFE copper rose 0.8% to 82,370 yuan/mt. Click to view SMM futures data dashboard.

News: [Insiders: Trump May Impose Tariffs on Imported Copper Within Weeks] According to Bloomberg citing insiders, the US may impose tariffs on imported copper within weeks, months ahead of the final decision deadline. Sources, who requested anonymity due to the confidentiality of the discussions, stated that US President Donald Trump instructed the Commerce Department in February to investigate potential copper tariffs and submit a report within 270 days, but a resolution is now expected sooner. Some insiders noted that the investigation appears to be a formality, as Trump has frequently expressed his intention to impose copper tariffs. An unnamed official mentioned that the government is accelerating its assessment and may conclude before the 270-day deadline. (Cailian Press)

[Glencore Suspends Operations at Chile's Altonorte Smelter, Invokes Force Majeure] According to mining.com citing Bloomberg, Glencore Plc has suspended shipments from a copper smelter in Chile after an issue arose with the smelter's furnace. Insiders revealed that Glencore temporarily halted operations at the Altonorte plant and invoked the force majeure clause in commercial contracts, which allows suppliers to stop shipments due to uncontrollable circumstances. The Altonorte plant has an annual copper production capacity of approximately 350,000 mt in metal content, and SMM understands that the smelter primarily produces custom copper anodes. Click for details.

Spot Market: Click to view SMM spot copper prices. Click to order and view SMM spot metal historical price trends. On March 26, the average spot price of SMM #1 copper cathode was 82,655 yuan/mt, up 1,090 yuan/mt or 1.34% from the previous day. Market transactions were weak due to high copper prices, with most purchases being just-in-time procurement.

Inventory: As of Monday, March 24, SMM's mainstream regional copper inventories fell by 12,800 mt WoW to 333,600 mt, down 15,400 mt from the previous Monday. Specifically, Shanghai inventories decreased from the previous Thursday, with downstream purchase willingness significantly rising after copper prices pulled back on Friday, leading to a notable inventory decline amid reduced inflows. Guangdong saw a slight destocking, but due to higher premiums, a significant price spread with other regions led to inflows from Jiangxi and Hunan, increasing Guangdong's inventory. Some warrants flowed out in Jiangsu, resulting in a slight inventory reduction, with increased pickup volumes over the weekend. This week, Shanghai is expected to continue destocking, with attention on the sustainability of the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread. Guangdong may see inventory buildup due to southbound inflows, potentially leading to slight inventory accumulation. High copper prices are suppressing demand, with weaker supply and demand dynamics likely resulting in greater inventory declines in east China than in south China.

Outlook: The US consumer confidence index hit a four-year low, with the US dollar index hovering around 104 recently. The market is focused on whether US inflation data will rise alongside potential tariffs. Concerns over US copper tariffs have intensified, driving COMEX copper prices higher. The widening price spread between New York and London markets may attract long positions, pushing COMEX copper prices further up. However, with COMEX copper repeatedly hitting record highs, caution is warranted for a potential technical pullback due to excessive gains. On the supply side, the copper concentrate supply deficit persists, exacerbated by the Altonorte smelter's suspension, providing strong support for copper prices. On the demand side, high copper prices are curbing downstream consumption, with insufficient fundamental demand likely limiting price gains. The market will monitor US tariff actions on imported copper and developments in Indonesian and Panamanian copper ore exports, as well as increased smelting maintenance, which may ease concerns over copper ore supply shortages.

Voices: On March 24 (Monday), JPMorgan expressed optimism about the global copper market, forecasting sustained demand growth through 2025. The investment bank predicts a global copper market deficit starting next year, expanding to around 3 million mt annually by 2030, potentially driving copper prices to $11,500/mt. On March 25 (Tuesday), several major global trade groups indicated that copper prices could reach a record high of $12,000/mt or more this year. On March 23, BHP CEO Mike Henry stated at the China Development Forum that the global copper supply deficit is expected to reach 10 million mt over the next decade. From 2024 to 2034, copper mining will require 1.8 trillion yuan ($250 billion) in growth capital expenditure, a significant increase from the 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion) invested in the past decade, though only a small portion has been committed so far. The construction boom of hyperscale data centers globally, which will provide robust computing power for AI development, will require substantial copper. By 2050, data center copper demand alone is expected to increase sixfold, from the current 500,000 mt annually to nearly 3 million mt annually. At current market prices, this copper is valued at approximately 200 billion yuan ($29 billion). Goldman Sachs and Citigroup noted that the core driver of copper price volatility is the anticipated tariff policy from the Trump administration—the market widely expects the US to implement a 25% import tax on April 2, prompting traders to rush about 500,000 mt of copper to US ports before the tariff takes effect, causing regional supply imbalances. Goldman Sachs believes the 25% import tax will directly push US copper prices into a "price island," with the COMEX-LME price spread already exceeding the historical extreme of $1,400/mt. Citigroup estimates that if the tariff is implemented, US refined copper import costs will increase by $1,800/mt, forcing suppliers like Chile to shift to Asian markets and exacerbating global trade flow disruptions.

Recommended Reading: Under the Tariff Storm, US Copper Prices Hit Record Highs, Institutions Predict the Era of Copper Shortages May Have Begun. For more information on copper prices, fundamentals, and policy, welcome to attend the CCI2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, in Nanchang, Jiangxi, from April 22-25, 2025. Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream copper industry enterprises, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, and academic experts will gather. The conference covers the entire copper industry chain, including mining, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications. On-site, over 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, premium raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting innovation and vitality in the copper industry. The event features a main forum focusing on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impacts, and market outlooks. Sub-forums will delve into sectors such as electrical transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. The conference also includes a two-day field trip to 12 representative copper industry enterprises with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt, sharing cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences to drive industry upgrades and high-quality development. CCI2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo: Seize industry trends, expand your network, and explore business opportunities! SMM invites you to Nanchang, Jiangxi, from April 22-25, to gather in the new era of copper and jointly plan for new developments!